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Winter water situation report 2026

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Scotland has had significant regional differences in rainfall conditions over winter 2026. Whilst the north-east (Dundee, Angus and Aberdeenshire) has seen significant improvement in recharge, some eastern areas - such as Fife and the south-east- could still be at risk of water scarcity if spring rainfall is lower than normal. The north (Highlands and Moray) has been particularly dry this winter, and without above average rainfall this spring and summer, there is an increased risk of water scarcity in these areas. 

Introduction

Weather conditions over autumn and winter can have a major influence on water resources and the likelihood of water scarcity the following summer. Rainfall and snow over this time replenishes water stores in the ground, lochs and reservoirs. The stores that are built up in winter usually deplete over summer as more water is lost from the system than is put in, until the cycle begins again the next autumn.

Conditions over autumn and winter 2025/2026 were particularly important following the drought of 2025 in the east of Scotland which depleted stores to record lows. 

This report reviews the conditions over the past three months (December, January, February) and summarises how the weather conditions over winter have impacted water resources across Scotland.

Winter 2026 summary

Despite headlines of the UK experiencing one of its wettest winters on record, there were significant regional contrasts, and overall Scotland had 14% below the long-term average rainfall for winter (Met Office, 2026). Regionally, an unusual reversal of typical winter weather patterns resulted in northern and western Scotland having below-average rainfall, whilst the east was wetter than normal. For example, in January, the north-east of Scotland recorded its fourth wettest January since 1890, whilst the Highland region recorded well below average rainfall (58%) (UKCEH, 2026). 

These differences in rainfall have carried through to water resources. Groundwater levels from our monitoring boreholes range from very low to very high for the time of year. Levels in the north-east, around the Ythan, were the lowest on record in September 2025 and are now very high for the time of year after experiencing significant recharge. Boreholes in Angus also show recovery from very low to between normal and very high. Groundwater levels in Fife have also improved, although the recovery has been more variable across monitoring sites. Overall, levels in Fife are now normal for the time of year and higher than at the start of 2025. However, they remain lower than during the winter of 2022, which preceded the summer 2022 drought. This reflects both the less significant rainfall Fife received this winter and the extreme low groundwater levels and deficits that had built up by the end of the 2025 drought. 

In the north of the country, where rainfall has been below average for winter, groundwater levels are normal to very low for the time of the year. Loch levels from monitored sites in the north also reflect the lower-than-average winter rainfall, with low to very low levels for the time of year. 

Will there be water scarcity this year?

Due to the variability in rainfall across Scotland, some areas remain at higher risk of water scarcity. 

The west and north (Highland and Moray) have been particularly dry, and without above average rainfall this spring and summer, there is an increased risk of water scarcity. The west can be vulnerable to water scarcity conditions developing more quickly due to less natural water storage, although conditions there can also improve faster when rainfall returns. 

The east ended the summer with record lows and months of below average rainfall, so it required much more rainfall than usual to recover from deficits built up during 2025. Whilst the north-east (Dundee, Angus and Aberdeenshire) has seen significant improvement, some eastern areas- such as Fife and the south-east- could still be at risk of water scarcity if spring rainfall is lower than normal. 

SEPA will begin weekly water scarcity reporting in May to monitor how conditions evolve. 

Forecast

The rainfall outlook for the March-May period suggests the chances of either a dry or wet spring overall are both near normal for the UK. Spells of wet and windy weather are more likely early in spring. While some colder spells and wintery hazards remain possible early in the period, a cool spring is very unlikely.

© Crown copyright [2026], Met Office

Advice for water users

Everyone should plan to increase their resilience to the impacts of prolonged dry conditions. By taking the right steps now, it could help reduce the impact of water scarcity in the future.  Advice for abstractors and irrigators provides more information.