Back to Water scarcity seasonal reports

Autumn water situation report 2025

Headlines

Without above average rainfall this winter, there is an increased risk of water scarcity for the east of Scotland in 2026. If conditions are drier than normal, the east of Scotland could experience an even more severe drought next year than experienced this year.

Drought of 2025

This autumn report follows the driest hydrological year (1 October 2024 – 30 September 2025) in eastern Scotland since 1976. Below-average rainfall over autumn and winter 2024/2025 meant that groundwater recharge was limited and there was an increased risk of drought. Rainfall and snow in these seasons are key to water scarcity risk for the year ahead. After this, Scotland recorded the hottest March – August period since records began in 1884 and the second driest spring in the east of Scotland for 100 years. Continued below average rainfall and warm temperatures caused significant water scarcity in parts of eastern Scotland in 2025. Rivers and groundwater levels reached record lows, with several north-east rivers experiencing the highest number of low-flow days recorded in a year. 

The west and south-west didn’t experience significant water scarcity this year with normal to wetter than average conditions following a dry spring.

Autumn 2025

Overall, autumn rainfall across most of Scotland was close to the long-term seasonal average. Some coastal and border regions experienced above-average rainfall, whilst parts of the north-east and Shetland saw below-average totals.

Despite recent rainfall causing some recovery to groundwater levels in the east, some monitored boreholes in Fife, Angus and Aberdeenshire have recorded the lowest November level on record (between 17 to 30-year records). Given eastern Scotland has seen below average rainfall for 9 out of 11 months so far this year, short-term periods of rain are not enough and above average rainfall over winter is required to replenish this deficit. 

 

Will there be a drought next year?

Without above average rainfall this winter, there is an increased risk of water scarcity for the east of Scotland into 2026. If conditions are drier than normal, the east of Scotland could experience even more severe drought next year than this. The current Met Office long-term (3-month) outlook for the UK shows the chances of a dry or wet season for the UK as a whole close to normal. 

SEPA’s next water situation report will be published in March 2026, at the end of winter, to review the risk of water scarcity into spring next year. 

© Crown copyright [2025], Met Office

Advice for water users

Everyone should plan to increase their resilience to the impacts of prolonged dry conditions. By taking the right steps now, it could help reduce the impact of water scarcity in the future.  Advice for abstractors and irrigators provides more information.