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Water scarcity report - 01 October 2026

This week’s key changes

Areas no longer at Significant Scarcity: Stonehaven, North Esk, Tay Estaury (North), North Fife, Fife (East Neuk), Whiteadder Water, Berwickshire coastal

Areas recovering to Alert: Esk (Angus), Firth of Tay, Firth of Forth; Early Warning: Deveron, Ythan; Normal Conditions: Cree, Spey

Map and water scarcity levels

Use the drought risk assessment tool to explore conditions through our interactive map. This tool shows the number of days that river flows have been very low and is used to help identify areas at greater risk of long-term ecological impacts. When river flows have been very low for 30 or more days, Significant Scarcity is reached. Data is updated daily at 0930 GMT / 1030 BST.

Conditions overview

• Rainfall - Recent rainfall has led to some recovery in parts of the east. However, more prolonged rainfall is needed, particularly in southeastern catchments, to bring more significant improvement.

• River flows - Low to very low river flows persist across much of eastern Scotland, while the west continues to experience normal to high flows.

• Soil/ground conditions - Ground conditions remain dry across parts of eastern Scotland, with only limited improvement seen in recent weeks.

• Groundwater and loch levels - Groundwater levels remain low to very low across much of eastern Scotland, while levels elsewhere are generally normal or above. Loch levels are generally normal to above normal, although Lochindorb remains low for the time of year.

Read in more detail our hydrological overview of the current conditions below.

Areas at risk of Significant Scarcity

Unless there is sustained rainfall, Significant Scarcity could be reached within the next week in the following area: Lower Tweed

You can monitor this on the Drought Risk Assessment Tool.

Weather forecast

Thursday will be dry for most places during daytime, aside from some showers in the northwest and then patchy rain arriving in the northwest during the evening. Showers or longer spells of rain across Scotland on Friday, often heavy and persistent in the southwest. Scattered showers in the northwest on Saturday. A risk of more persistent rain across northwest Scotland on Sunday and Monday but drier across the southeast.

© Crown copyright [2026], Met Office

Advice for water users

Everyone should plan to increase their resilience to the impacts of prolonged dry conditions. By taking the right steps now, it could help reduce the impact of water scarcity in the future. For further information visit Advice for abstractors and irrigators

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Supporting information

This section goes into more detail on the data behind the water scarcity levels.

Rainfall and river flows

These maps show rainfall and river flows relative to the long-term average, for this time of year, over 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months.

Recent rainfall conditions have been generally normal across the country. River flows have continued to be very low in parts of eastern Scotland, while the rest of the country has seen normal to very high flows.

Over the past three months, rainfall conditions have generally been dry to very dry across much of eastern and southern Scotland. In contrast, northern and parts of western Scotland have generally experienced normal to very wet conditions. River flows have remained very low across much of eastern Scotland, with a mixture of normal to quite low flows in the south-west. In the west and north, flows have generally ranged from normal to very high.

Over the past six months, rainfall conditions have been generally dry to very dry across much of the east of Scotland and in parts of the south-west and Central Belt, with isolated extremely dry conditions. In the north-west, Orkney and Shetland, rainfall conditions have been normal to very wet. River flows have been very low to extremely low across much of eastern Scotland and the Central Belt. Elsewhere, flows have generally ranged from normal to very high, with areas of quite low flows in the south-west.

What do the map colours mean?

Rainfall	Extremely dry	Very dry	Dry	Quite dry	Normal Conditions	Wet	Very wet
River flow	Extremely low	Very low	Low	Quite low	Normal Conditions	High	Very high
	Red	Orange	Light orange	Yellow	Green	Light blue	Dark blue

Soil moisture deficit

Natural water storage – groundwater and loch levels

In each river catchment there is some degree of natural water storage, which can maintain river flows even when it is not raining. This natural water storage is mainly held in lochs and groundwater. When storage has been depleted it will take a lot of rainfall for levels to recover.

The maps below show recent groundwater and loch level compared to the long-term record at each individual station. Level is reported as high or low compared to the typical (‘normal’) level range for the time of year.

Level ranges are specific to each station and based on the long-term (minimum 10 years) record of mean monthly level values recorded at individual stations. 

Despite the recent rainfall, groundwater levels remain low across much of the country. In central Fife levels remain very low for the time of year. In the 30-year monitoring record at the Newton of Falkland borehole August levels were only lower in 2006 and 2025. Monitoring boreholes in Aberdeenshire, Angus and East Lothian were also at very low levels for August. In Dumfries and Northern Scotland levels are generally within the normal range seen at this time of year.

Loch levels show a mixed picture, with most sites normal to high levels. However, Lochindorb, to the east of Inverness, has a low level.

What do the map colours mean?

Very high	High	Normal range	Low	Very low
Dark blue	Light blue	Light green	Light orange	Dark orange

Flow, rainfall and groundwater data are accessed via SEPA's time series data service (API). SEPA's live data are subject to ongoing quality control and periodic review.

Scottish Water are responsible for public water supply and distribution in Scotland. Scottish Water reports on the raw water stored in these supplies.

Report copyright

• Current water scarcity levels - © SEPA. Some features of this information are based on digital spatial data licensed from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology © NERC (CEH). Contains OS data © Crown copyright (and database right).
• Areas of significant water scarcity - OS Data - © Crown Copyright - SEPA licence number 100016991 (2022)
• Rainfall, river flow, groundwater and loch levels - Base map © OpenStreetMap contributors.
• Soil moisture deficit - Data based on MORECS (Met Office © Crown Copyright). Some features of this information are based on digital spatial data licensed from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology © NERC (CEH). Contains OS data © Crown copyright (and database right). Base map © OpenStreetMap contributors.
• Weather forecast  - Crown copyright [2022], Met Office