Wetter autumn outlook puts Scotland’s flood risk in focus
Date published: 01 October 2026
People across Scotland are being encouraged to prepare and be aware by understanding the information available to them as the latest seasonal outlook points to an increased likelihood of wetter and more unsettled conditions later this autumn and into early winter.
The current El Niño is now the strongest in the observational record and increases the chances of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK. But El Niño is only one influence on our weather and cannot tell us exactly when or where severe weather or flooding will happen.
That uncertainty makes it important to understand flood risk before severe weather arrives, know where to look for information and think about how flooding could affect the places that matter to you.
As Scotland’s flood warning authority, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is highlighting the practical steps people can take to prepare and be aware, alongside the network of monitoring, science and specialist expertise behind Scotland’s flood information.
Across Scotland, SEPA monitors water levels at 392 locations and operates more than 280 automated rain gauges. Many are small pieces of infrastructure people may pass without ever knowing what they are, but the information they collect helps specialists understand changing conditions and contributes to Scotland’s flood forecasting services.
Eleanore Cooper, SEPA’s Head of Environmental Forecasting, Warning and Informing, said:
“Being prepared means knowing your flood risk and looking ahead. Being aware means understanding what information is available, what different flood messages mean and where to find the latest information when conditions change.
“Flooding doesn’t have to come through your own front door to affect you. That’s why we encourage people to think about the places that matter. It could disrupt the road you use to get to work, your workplace, local services you rely on or somewhere friends or family live.”
Prepare: know your risk and look ahead
When unsettled weather is approaching, the Scottish Flood Forecast provides a three-day outlook showing where flooding from rivers, surface water and the sea may occur and the potential impacts.
Produced by the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service, a partnership between SEPA and the Met Office, the forecast is updated every day.
Be aware: know what information is available
Different sources of flood information are designed to do different jobs.
Regional Flood Alerts provide early information when flooding is possible across a wider area and can cover flooding from rivers, the coast or surface water.
Local Flood Warnings provide more targeted information when flooding is expected in defined communities where SEPA has the monitoring and forecasting capability to provide them.
People can register with Floodline to receive Flood Alert and Warning messages for the areas that matter to them and get information sent directly to them. That can include where they live, work or regularly travel through, as well as areas where friends or family live.
Eleanore added:
“No single source tells you everything about flood risk because they are designed to do different things.
“The Scottish Flood Forecast helps you look ahead to what is expected over the next few days. Flood Alerts give early information across a wider area, while local Flood Warnings provide more targeted information where that service is available.
Knowing what’s available and how those different sources work together means you are better prepared when conditions change.
“And Floodline isn’t just about your home address. You can keep an eye on the places that matter to you, whether that’s your workplace, somewhere you regularly travel through or where someone you care about lives.”
People should also continue to follow weather forecasts and warnings issued by the Met Office, particularly during periods of heavy or persistent rain.
The science behind the information
Behind Scotland’s flood information is a network of monitoring, forecasting and specialist expertise that most people never see.
At river gauging stations across the country, equipment continually monitors changing water levels. SEPA teams also make physical measurements to understand the relationship between the level of a river and the amount of water flowing through it.
Because rivers and channels change over time, equipment and measurements are regularly checked to make sure the information remains reliable.
That information is brought together with data from SEPA’s rain gauge network, weather forecasts, computer modelling and specialist judgement to help flood forecasters understand how conditions are developing.
Bruce Campbell, SEPA Hydrometry National Team Manager, said:
“People can pass one of our gauging stations without ever knowing what it is or what it is doing. But sites like these across Scotland are essential so we can continually monitor what our rivers are doing.
“The equipment is one part of a much bigger system. Our teams maintain the monitoring network, take measurements and check the data, which is then used alongside rainfall information, weather forecasts, modelling and the expertise of our flood forecasting colleagues.
“All of that work happening behind the scenes helps us build the best possible picture of developing flood risk and provides useful information to communities and first responders across Scotland.”
The same forecasting expertise also supports Scotland’s emergency preparedness. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service produces a daily Flood Guidance Statement for Category 1 and Category 2 responders, helping local authorities, emergency services and other organisations prepare for and respond to potential flooding.
People can view the Scottish Flood Forecast, current Flood Alerts and Warnings and register for Floodline through SEPA’s website at sepa.org.uk/flooding
ENDS
Notes to editor
Images below from today's (Thursday 1st October) flood resilience campaign launch in Peebles.
People are encouraged to sign up to the Floodline service to receive free updates for where they live, or where they’re travelling through, directly to their phone.
People can also check flood updates for all the latest updates and have a look at the three day Scottish Flood Forecast to see what’s expected further ahead.
Get more data
SEPA's River Level Network – current river-level information from monitoring stations across Scotland
Rainfall data for Scotland – current and historic rainfall information
Stay informed
Follow @SEPAFlood on X for the latest flooding information.
Check the Regional Flood Alerts and Local Flood Warnings for your area.
Check Ready Scotland for advice on preparing for severe weather.
What's the difference between a Flood Alert and a Flood Warning?
Regional Flood Alerts are early advice that flooding is possible across a wider geographical area. The purpose of the Alerts is to make people aware of the risk of flooding and be prepared. We normally issue them 12 to 24 hours in advance of the possibility of flooding.
Flood Warnings are more locally specific and are issued for areas where we have gauges to measure the exact water height. They are issued at shorter notice when we are more certain that a specific area will be affected.