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National Flood Risk Assessment

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Overview

The National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) is a strategic tool that provides a national picture of the risk of flooding in Scotland. It sits within the wider flood risk management planning framework which provides a structured, long-term approach to reducing the likelihood and impact of flooding on people, property, the economy, and the environment. 

We regularly review  the NFRA to provide the most accurate evidence base for managing flood risk.

This helps:

  • Provide the evidence base for prioritising coordinated action to manage flooding.
  • Support decisions on investment and funding for flood risk management. 
  • Ensure that policy makers, practitioners and communities have access to the most accurate and current information available.

2025 report

Published on 18 December 2025. 

View the National Flood Risk Assessment 2025 report (PDF, 1.9 MB).

Read the Executive Summary below. NFRA data will be published in 2026. 

The flood risk challenge

Flooding is Scotland’s most severe climate-related risk [1] . Communities from the Borders to the Highlands and Islands have lived with the impact of flooding for decades, and as our climate changes, those impacts are accelerating. The National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) 2025 gives us the clearest picture yet of what lies ahead for Scottish homes and businesses - and why action to improve Scotland’s flood resilience matters.

The story in numbers

  • Today: around 400,000 properties - homes, businesses, and vital services - are in areas at medium risk of flooding. That’s 1 in 8 properties across Scotland, a sharp rise from 284,000 in our 2018 [2]  assessment.
  • Tomorrow: by 2100, climate change could push that number to 634,000 properties. Coastal communities face the biggest surge: risk from the sea is projected to more than double.
  • The Cost: flooding already costs Scotland an estimated £500 million every year - and that figure could grow.

What’s new and improved

NFRA 2025 isn’t just an update - it’s a transformation. The NFRA is a strategic tool that provides a national picture of the risk of flooding in Scotland. For the first time, we can see where flooding will be deepest [3], not just where it will happen. This means we can prioritise the places where impacts will be most severe - where floodwaters can move cars, destroy homes, and disrupt lives.

Behind these insights are major advances: richer property data, improved climate projections, and enhanced modelling methods. This is why comparisons with 2018 aren’t straightforward - the science has moved on and so has our understanding.

The climate challenge

The NFRA confirms what recent storms have shown us: flooding is becoming more frequent, more intense, and more damaging.

  • Surface water and small watercourses will drive the biggest increase in absolute numbers - adding over 200,000 properties to the risk map.
  • Coastal flooding will see the largest proportional rise, as sea levels rise and storm surges intensify.
  • River flooding will also surge, with homes in high-risk zones expected to double by the end of the century.

Why the NFRA matters

NFRA 2025 is the cornerstone for the implementation of Scotland’s Flood Resilience Strategy and the next cycle of flood risk management planning. It will shape:

Next steps

From Spring 2026, NFRA data will be available through SEPA’s digital services, providing evidence to inform coordinated action by local authorities, planners and communities. This is not just data - it’s a roadmap for resilience. Flooding is Scotland’s costliest hazard and it’s getting worse. NFRA 2025 gives Scotland the evidence to act decisively.

Related news

2024 NFRA review

  • [1] Evidence for the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Summary for Scotland
  • [2] This is based on the medium likelihood of flooding scenario which has an 0.5% annual probability of occurring. All statistics quoted in the body of the report refer to the medium likelihood scenario unless otherwise stated.
  • [3] Deep flooding is defined as having a depth greater than or equal to 30cm.