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Recovery after 2025 drought, but risks remain, say SEPA

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency’s Winter Water Situation Report, published today (10th March), shows that rainfall patterns over the past three months have varied significantly across the country.

Despite the UK experiencing one of its wettest winters on record, Scotland recorded around 14% less rainfall than the long-term average, with marked regional differences.

In the north-east of Scotland, including Dundee, Angus and Aberdeenshire, groundwater levels that reached record lows during the 2025 drought have now recovered to between normal and very high levels for the time of year following significant winter recharge.

However, recovery in other eastern areas has been more variable. In Fife and parts of the south-east, groundwater levels are now generally normal for the time of year but remain lower than levels recorded ahead of the 2022 drought.

Rainfall over the winter showed sharp regional contrasts. January was the fourth wettest on record in the north-east since 1890, helping support recovery in that region, while parts of the Highlands experienced much drier conditions, receiving just 58% of average rainfall during the month.

February showed the same contrasting pattern. Eastern Scotland recorded around 119% of its long-term average rainfall, while northern Scotland saw only around 66% of its average rainfall.
In the north Highlands, these drier conditions mean some groundwater and loch levels remain normal to very low for the time of year.

The contrasting conditions mean water scarcity across Scotland as a whole is unlikely, but some areas, particularly parts of Fife, the south east and the Highlands, could still face increased risk if dry conditions persist into the spring and summer.

Winter rainfall plays a crucial role in replenishing Scotland’s water resources. Rain and snow during autumn and winter refill groundwater, rivers, lochs and reservoirs, which are gradually depleted over the spring and summer months as demand increases.

Following the drought conditions experienced in eastern Scotland during 2025, the driest hydrological year in the region since 1976, winter rainfall was particularly important to help rebuild depleted water stores.

SEPA will begin weekly water scarcity reporting in May, closely monitoring how conditions develop across the country as Scotland moves into the spring and summer period.

In addition, work with partners including the Scottish Government, NFU Scotland, Farming and Water Scotland, the Scotch Whisky Association and other key sectors will continue in order to support businesses in preparing for potential dry conditions.

Eleanore Cooper, SEPA’s Head of Environmental Forecasting and Warning, said:

“Last year’s drought showed how vulnerable some parts of Scotland can be to prolonged dry conditions. Winter rainfall is when our rivers, groundwater and lochs are replenished, so the patterns we see at this time of year are critical for the months ahead.

“While parts of north-eastern Scotland have seen welcome recovery since the record lows experienced during the 2025 drought, the picture across the country remains mixed and some areas have been much drier than usual this winter.

“As our climate continues to change, preparing for periods of water scarcity is becoming increasingly important. The cooperation we saw from farmers, industry and other water users last year played a vital role in protecting Scotland’s water environment. Planning ahead now is essential. The actions that reduce the impact of water scarcity, such as improving efficiency and reviewing contingency plans, must be taken before dry conditions develop.” 

The Met Office outlook for March to May suggests the chances of either wetter-than-average or drier-than-average conditions are both close to normal, meaning rainfall over the coming months will play an important role in how the situation develops.

Further advice for abstractors and irrigators is available on SEPA’s website.

Notes to editors

Figures on rainfall totals from UKCEH and Met Office 

Water scarcity levels

• Early Warning: Conditions are drying. No action required, but abstractors should start preparing.
• Alert: Water levels are falling. SEPA advises voluntary reductions in non-essential water use for abstractors.
• Moderate Scarcity: Environmental impact is clear. Action from abstractors is expected to protect rivers and the species that rely on them.
• Significant Scarcity: Critical river levels. Restrictions on abstraction licences may be imposed.

Data sources

• SEPA Winter Scarcity situation report - Winter Scarcity situation report 2026
• SEPA’s river level network - Find Scottish water levels information
• Rainfall data for Scotland - Scottish Rainfall Data
• DRAT - Water scarcity data - provided by Scottish Environment Protection Agency

DRAT stations and Significant Scarcity

Significant scarcity is reached when river flows have been very low for 30 or more days. We use a tool called the Drought Risk Assessment Tool (DRAT) to set significant scarcity level.

DRAT is a network of flow gauging stations that SEPA monitor across Scotland and are used to set significant water scarcity when flows have been low for a sustained period of time.

Data has been collected at these stations for a long period of time, so this allows us to give context to what is currently happening with the amount of flow in rivers relative to what you would normally expect.

The river flow stations are each used as a representation of the conditions over an area, called a significant water scarcity area. The area and representative gauging stations are displayed on the tool.

Further support and useful links

The National Water Scarcity Plan explains how water resources will be managed prior to and during periods of prolonged dry weather. This is to ensure the correct balance is struck between protecting the environment and providing resource for human and economic activity.

Report dry private water supplies and rivers and burns in your area to help SEPA assess water scarcity stress.

All water abstractors should be aware of the potential risk of water scarcity this summer, monitor their water use, and plan ahead for a range of weather conditions. Find further advice for abstractors and irrigators on our website.